But Clinton knows who holds the real levers of power in Northern Ireland; and it isn’t Paisley. When the president wants to appeal to mainstream middle Ulster–as he has at every crucial stage in the two-year-old peace process–Clinton phones David Trimble. The Nobel Peace Prize winner heads the Ulster Unionists, Northern Ireland’s largest political party, which last year agreed to share power with those who have traditionally wanted a united Ireland. The trouble is, most Americans–and most people in the rest of the world, too–think Paisley and other hard-liners are the soul of unionism. That isn’t the case.
All unionists agree on one thing: Northern Ireland–the mini-state carved out of Ireland in 1921 and dominated ever since by the Protestant majority–should remain British. But the hard-liners get all the press. Every summer, these partisans, sometimes championed by Paisley, hold parades to commemorate ancient Protestant victories over Catholics. The annual–and sometimes violent–standoffs between marchers, police and Catholics reinforce the idea that all unionists are retrogrades who can’t tolerate living with the Catholic minority as equals. This year’s parades have been peaceful, so far, but “marching season” runs into August.
Before it ends, moderate unionism will be put to the test. A new legislature is on the verge of taking over Northern Ireland’s affairs. For the legislature to convene, unionists must this week accept a deal devised by the British and Irish governments. Under the deal, Sinn Fein, the political arm of the IRA, qualifies for seats in the cabinet, provided that IRA paramilitaries start to give up their weapons within 30 days. With polls showing that most Protestants want the paramilitaries disarmed first, Trimble’s party is being asked to make a leap of faith. If Trimble signs, he’ll be praised in Washington, Dublin and London as a visionary willing to take risks for peace. If he balks, he’ll look like just another rejectionist.
Moderate unionists say that’s unfair–because they are being asked to trust the word of a still-armed band. “We have been absolutely hopeless at explaining ourselves,” says David McNarry, a member of the Ulster Unionist executive council. Mainstream unionists, like the middle-of-the-road Catholics they differ with on so many issues, yearn for a Northern Ireland free of political strife. They may be tongue-tied, but if moderate unionists continue to work for such a future, their deeds will speak volumes.
