It was Mbanga’s second encounter with Zimbabwe’s simmering political violence. Last year, a group of self-styled “war veterans”-pro-Mugabe militia who started invading commercial farms two years ago–began arriving at Mbanga’s home in KweKwe. “One night three truckloads of ‘war veterans’ arrived and, in front of our kids, they threatened us and demanded money. Things got ugly,” recalls Mbanga. He and two managers were held as hostages at the mine by the vets, who forced them to write a check for 6 million Zimbabwean dollars (about U.S.$112,500) “There is no rule of law here anymore. It’s scary and it’s dangerous.”
Now Mbanga is looking for work in Canada, Australia or New Zealand. Nor is he likely to be alone in his desire to relocate. Throughout Zimbabwe, tensions remain high in the wake of Mugabe’s controversial reelection this week. Western observers have condemned the poll as rigged, and several governments are now considering imposing tougher economic sanctions on the Mugabe government. “We do not recognize the outcome of the election because we think it’s flawed,” President George W. Bush said Wednesday. “And we are dealing with our friends to figure out how to deal with this flawed election.”
So far, internal public protest against the Mugabe victory has been muted. While isolated incidents of violence were reported, police and military roadblocks–as well as a call for calm from defeated opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai–kept the country under a semblance of control in the hours following Mugabe’s claim of victory.
Under the surface, however, moving companies are bracing for a boom in business as middle-class Zimbabweans prepare to leave the country. “Who’s leaving?” says the owner of one shipping company. “Everybody who can.” Added the shipping manager of one of Zimbabwe’s largest removal companies, who asked that neither he nor his company be named: “We’re gearing up. We’re anticipating many, many more people [emigrating] as people look into a future with a worthless currency, declining living standards, more violence and no jobs.”
Zimbabweans have been seeking more stable futures abroad for years. The government does not publish official emigration statistics–partly because it is unwilling to admit the extent of the problem and partly many people leave quietly, without announcing their intentions. But already, more than a million are believed to live in neighboring South Africa. A similar number is scattered in countries like Britain and Canada. While many who have left are members of the country’s tiny white minority, at least an equal number are believed to be black professionals.
The poor, too, are trying to leave: in the first six weeks of this year alone, South African authorities caught some 7,000 Zimbabwean migrants who risked the crocodile-infested Limpopo River to seek a better life down south. The new arrivals were deported back to Zimbabwe, but, like many Mexican migrants who repeatedly try to slip across the border into the United States, they are expected to keep returning in the hope of finally evading the South African border guards.
A fresh exodus now will hit the struggling country especially hard. Those whom Zimbabwe can least afford to lose–the skilled and the wealthy–are those most likely to go. And their departure is likely to be accelerated as the Mugabe government encourages fresh invasions of farms and businesses under its “indigenization” plan. (On Wednesday, state-run television suggested this program would be speeded up now that Mugabe has a popular mandate.)
Mugabe may not be worried about the flight of the middle-class, who mostly support Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change. But their departure undoubtedly will have a significant impact on those left behind. “I was paralyzed after [I heard] the election result,” says Harare lawyer Jacob Mafume. Mafume opted to remain in Zimbabwe because he feels his country needs his human-rights work now more than ever. But, he says, his work is much more difficult now. It’s not just the political climate–it’s because his trusted secretary left recently for a new life in Britain.
